how time passes so fast when you're busy. weekends flew past me ;P
chance upon this article in business times about matching clients to their investment portfolio. it generally shows how mismatch most people are, i.e. people with low risk actually buying high risk products! accordingly to the article, having knowledge to products does not necessary means you are gear towards high risk investment. worth a read at your own time (:
Wed, September 30, 2009,
Getting to know all about you
Risk profiling is a standard and important part of the 'know your client' process but arguably, too little thought and resources are invested into the design of the questionnaire, reports GENEVIEVE CUA
IN THE aftermath of the damage wrought by the financial crisis, the accusation most often hurled at bankers is that they had pigeon-holed clients into the wrong risk profile.
That is, clients were ushered into investments that were allegedly a poor match with their actual risk appetites.
Risk profiling is a standard and important part of the 'know your client' process, regardless of a client's net worth. But arguably, too little thought and resources are invested into the design of the questionnaire - typically a cursory five-question exercise. Do risk profilers actually give a fair picture of your risk appetite?
Barclays Wealth has tapped psychometrics - a blend of statistics and psychology - to develop a risk profiler that it hopes will lead to meaningful discussions on risk preferences and portfolio allocations. The exercise should ultimately help clients to stay on track through fair and foul winds.
Barclays Wealth director (investment and product office) Greg Davies says: 'Classical finance says tell me your level of risk tolerance and I'll put you on the efficient frontier that maximises return for a level of risk. It assumes that once you invest in a rational and optimal portfolio, you're able to stick with it . . . You invest, fall asleep and wake up 10 years later to get the benefits. But that doesn't happen.'
In reality, investors have 'emotional interactions' with their portfolios, thanks to easy access to portfolio valuations as well as media bombardment, he says. 'It's not just about the end goal. It's about the journey. The journey is extremely important. Not only is it capable of making you happy or miserable;
but if you are emotionally involved with the journey, you're also liable to making short-term decisions that are harmful to your long-run financial goals.'
Investors are their own worst enemy
There is a wealth of data showing that investors are their own worst enemy. US-based Dalbar, which has tracked the effects of investor behaviour on portfolios for some 15 years, finds consistently that investors in equities, bonds or asset allocation funds fail to beat inflation as emotions cause them to buy high and sell low.
Barclays' new tool comprises two sections. The first is a series of 36 questions that Dr Davies reckons should take five minutes to complete. The second comprises standard questions on one's objectives, financial circumstances and assets, as well as liquidity needs.
The result is a profile of a client along six dimensions of risk. These are: risk tolerance, which refers to the long-term rational trade-off between risk and return; composure or one's emotional reactions to uncertainty; market engagement; perceived financial expertise; delegation, which reflects the desire to reduce the effort of financial decision making by taking advice; and belief in the skill of investment managers.
'The test tries to measure how much you can psychologically cope with downside risk over the long term,' says Dr Davies.
With this profile, it is then possible to put together a portfolio with allocations that take into account where the investor stands along the six dimensions. This is in contrast to the normal 'pigeon-holing' approach where most clients end up with a 'moderate' risk level even if their reactions to short-term fluctuations and investment horizon may be on opposite ends of a scale.
'You can have as much brain power put into a better asset allocation but unless you help clients stick with that portfolio, it's not going to do them any good.' The goal is to try to smoothen the path for investors so that they can achieve their goals and suffer less emotional trauma along the way.
As an example, a hypothetical client who scores very lowly on composure could be recommended a relatively higher allocation into absolute return strategies. One's score on the market engagement dimension - which measures the degree to which an individual is comfortable with risk in financial markets - is linked to one's allocation to cash and liquid assets. A low score suggests that one is likely to avoid financial markets, and hence the portfolio could be structured to limit negative surprises.
The tool has been rolled out in Europe and the US and has just been launched in Singapore. To date, between 3,500 and 4,000 clients have used it.
Falling short of the standard
In a newsletter, Optimal Behaviour, Dr Davies points out that it is mandatory in Europe to assess clients' risk preferences. But there is no guidance on how to assess risk appetite accurately. 'Accurate measurement requires a carefully designed, objective and statistically robust risk tolerance questionnaire using established psychometric techniques. The overwhelming majority of risk tolerance questionnaires used by banks simply do not meet these standards, and frequently fall foul of pitfalls long known to experimental psychologists. And yet they satisfy the regulatory requirements.'
He says that questions to assess risk tolerance must be free of 'confounding factors' - which are incidental factors that can cause the risk tolerance score to be systematically biased upwards or downwards.
Risk tolerance should not be confused with investment objectives. Factors such as annual income requirements, time horizon and liquidity requirements are not psychological factors, says Dr Davies. Risk tolerance, if properly measured, is quite stable. 'It's not that investment objectives should be ignored, but rather that they should be considered separately from risk tolerance.'
A second principle is not to confound risk attitude with other personality dimensions. For instance, health risks, participation in dangerous sports or taking risk in a gambling environment are unrelated to financial risk attitudes.
Knowledge of finance or investment or mathematical ability should not feature in risk profilers. 'It is equally important that a measure of risk tolerance reflects an investor's innate ability to cope with future risks, rather than their reactions to past investment performance.'
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ps. always make sure you know what you're buying! investment is good only if it's made wisely and with appropriate considerations. DO NOT jump into investments. what can go up can come down. know your own risk and you're one step closer to smart investment (: